empty
04.09.2024 09:23 AM
Gold Retreats but Refuses to Give Up

Expectations of recovery in the U.S. labor market in August and excessively inflated speculative long positions increase the risks of a correction in gold. However, its medium—and long-term prospects remain bullish. Central banks' appetite to buy precious metals does not cool down even for a minute. The Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle will lead to capital inflows into ETFs. Geopolitics will continue to faithfully serve buyers of XAU/USD.

According to Goldman Sachs, the tripling of central banks' gold purchases is driven by concerns about U.S. financial sanctions and risks associated with U.S. sovereign debt. These structural factors will continue to favor the precious metal, regardless of how high prices may rise. In the first half of the year, central banks' purchases reached a record high of 483 tons, 5% more than the previous peak in January-June 2023.

The World Gold Council notes that in July, central banks added 37 tons to reserves on a net basis, demand remains high, and it is likely to continue rising.

Dynamics of Gold Purchases by Central Banks

This image is no longer relevant

The Fed is on the verge of the first rate cut in the federal funds cycle, which will return capital to the ETF market. This component of investment demand for gold has been virtually absent over the last two years. However, that hasn't stopped XAU/USD from rising, as the precious metal did so thanks to other bullish factors. It is about to gain a new one, allowing it to aim for a record.

Finally, gold offers excellent conditions as a tool for hedging various risks. This includes geopolitical risks associated with situations in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, political risks due to the possible return of the U.S. to trade wars if Donald Trump wins in November, pressure on the Fed from the president, and risks of defaults on U.S. bonds.

Goldman Sachs predicts the rise of precious metal futures to $2,700 per ounce in the first quarter of 2025. How quickly this mark is reached depends on non-farm employment data in the U.S. Investors are waiting for the labor market recovery; however, in case of its slowdown, the chances of a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in September will increase from the current 42%, which would hit the dollar and allow XAU/USD to spread its wings.

This image is no longer relevant

The highest speculative net-long positions may hamper gold's bullish advance in four years. However, the latest report showed that asset managers and hedge funds were cutting short positions more than they were increasing long ones—a good sign for the bulls on XAU/USD.

Technically, on the daily chart of gold, there is a combination of the Three Indians and Splash and Shelf patterns. This combination increases the risk of a pullback if the quotes fall below $2474 per ounce. Successfully breaching this support will allow the build-up of shorts formed from $2515.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD. A Rough Patch for the Pound

The UK inflation report failed to support the pound—all components of the release came in below expectations. On the one hand, this report is unlikely to influence the outcome

Irina Manzenko 23:41 2025-03-26 UTC+2

The Dollar Will Loosen Its Grip

The euro is retreating cautiously, worried about a potential trade war between the European Union and the United States, while the dollar is on track for its worst month

Marek Petkovich 23:41 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Donald Trump sows confusion again with tariff remarks

United States President Donald Trump once again stirred confusion on Tuesday by announcing plans to introduce a series of exemptions to his sweeping tariff proposal. The announcement served

Jakub Novak 11:36 2025-03-26 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show a positive tone today, but conviction behind the upward movement remains weak. Market uncertainty, driven by the tariffs announced by Donald Trump—set to take effect

Irina Yanina 10:54 2025-03-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen remains under pressure today due to weak domestic economic data. In February, Japan's leading inflation indicator in the services sector rose by 3.0% year-over-year, slightly below

Irina Yanina 10:42 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Looks Like It's Time to Focus on the Euro and Yen (EUR/USD May Fall, USD/JPY May Rise)

Since mid-month, financial markets have been trying to recover while frantically analyzing all possible developments surrounding the trade war the U.S. launched against its largest trading partners. Investor sentiment continues

Pati Gani 08:52 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Markets Won't Rush Headfirst into the Fire

Donald Trump has dealt such a heavy blow to globalization that conditions and outlooks for the future have changed—now divided along territorial lines. While European banks believe the S&P 500's

Marek Petkovich 07:00 2025-03-26 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 26? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, and only one important report is expected. The UK will release what may seem like a significant inflation report. Inflation remains

Paolo Greco 06:03 2025-03-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 26: The Pound Isn't Even Trying. Inertial Growth Continues

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Tuesday. It did so on a day when there were no significant events in the UK, and the only noteworthy report

Paolo Greco 02:40 2025-03-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 26: No News, No Movement

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility on Tuesday. There have been times when the euro would crawl just 40 pips a day, and while current volatility isn't extremely

Paolo Greco 02:40 2025-03-26 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.