Forex Analysis & Reviews: 01.08.2022 - The euro's collapse is...

01.08.2022 10:01 AM

The euro's collapse is imminent: why the EUR/USD pair risks falling much below parity with the dollar

This year, the euro has already fallen by more than 10% against the US dollar. But many analysts believe that this is far from the limit and predict a further decline for the EUR/USD pair.

What's going on with the euro?

Last month, heightened fears of a global recession sharply increased investors' appetite for a safe dollar, as a result of which the risky euro was in a strong flight.

Recall that in early July, the euro reached parity with the greenback for the first time in 20 years. The low was 0.9952.

Nevertheless, over the past two weeks, the EUR/USD pair has been able to recover slightly and has risen slightly above parity. Now the euro is trading at about 1.02, but at the same time it continues to remain under strong statistical pressure.

Last Friday, data showed that the German economy, which is the leading one in Europe, stagnated, and inflation in the 19-member currency bloc exceeded forecasts and soared to a new record of 8.9%.

As for this week, data on retail sales in the EU is expected to be released on Wednesday. Economists predict a decline in the indicator, which may negatively affect the euro's rate.

Why will the euro fall?

According to Bloomberg analysts, the eurozone is currently approaching another existential crisis similar to the one it experienced in 2012. Then the high level of debt of some EU countries led to speculation that the region could break up.

Recall that 10 years ago, the euro collapsed to $1.20. However, this year the euro is feeling even worse, as it has been under pressure from many negative factors.

One of them is another escalation of fears about the collapse of the eurozone. This time, the main source of concern is the situation in Italy.

Now the country, which is the third largest economy in Europe, is sinking deeper into the debt pit. Its inability to pay off its obligations may bury the project of a united Europe.

The risk increases amid political instability in the country. Italy is experiencing a government crisis again: in mid-July, due to contradictions in the ruling coalition, Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned.

The tense situation ahead of early parliamentary elections hinders the work of the European Central Bank, which is trying in every way to prevent the fragmentation of the region amid divergence in the debt spreads of eurozone members.

Do not forget that in parallel, the ECB continues to struggle with high inflation, which is breaking records everywhere this year.

In July, the central bank raised the interest rate by 50 bps, to 0.5%, while its US counterpart added another 75 bps to its benchmark last month, pulling the rate to the range of 2.25-2.5%.

However, a large discrepancy in the monetary policy of the ECB and the Federal Reserve is far from the only obstacle for the EUR/USD pair. The euro's growth is severely limited by fears of a recession in the European region.

According to the Swiss bank Credit Suisse, the probability of a slowdown in economic growth in Europe by the end of the year is 50%, and Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the EU is already entering this phase.

Anyway, for the rest of the year, the word "recession" in the context of the European economy will continue to scare away bulls on the EUR/USD pair.

Given the strong exposure of the EU to the energy crisis, American bank J.P. Morgan predicts that by the end of the year the euro risks falling to 95 cents.

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