empty
21.11.2022 06:48 PM
Brazil is preparing for a serious recession

Last Friday, Roberto Campos Neto, the central bank's president, announced changes to the fiscal plan, indicating that a deterioration in the fiscal situation might necessitate a change in monetary policy.

Brazil is preparing for a severe economic downturn.

This image is no longer relevant

The words are primarily addressed to the transition team of Brazil's incoming President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who intends to include new fiscal policy commitments in the proposed constitutional amendment.

The proposed amendment will specifically include the commitment to the new fiscal anchor, which exempts nearly 200 billion reais ($37.16 billion) in social spending from the constraints of the nation's budget.

The first step toward an unregulated economy was taken with this one. So, following the election, Lula pledged to remove the constitutional spending cap, which limits public spending growth by taking the previous year's inflation into account, without mentioning the new fiscal anchor that will take its place. Investors were alarmed by the news because it raised the possibility of a record-high rise in public debt and a change in monetary policy. Brazilian assets consequently reacted negatively by devaluing the real.

The head of the Brazilian National Bank today also spoke unfavorably about the substantial increase in spending that the incoming administration of the new president, who takes office on January 1, has planned.

Remember that the Central Bank had warned that it might resume tightening monetary policy if expected disinflation did not materialize after 12 straight increases, which caused interest rates to rise to 13.75% from a record low of 2% in March 2021.

After winning the elections, the new president is undoubtedly attempting to win over a devoted electorate, but new loan pools could burden Brazilians. In addition, the advantageous period of low dollar prices and unrestricted borrowing has passed. Taking out dollar loans at this time would be foolish. Although it is entirely justified given the current circumstances, the new government may continue to restrict itself to domestic loan bonds and avoid attracting external borrowings.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

4月22日美國市場新聞摘要

隨著對經濟增長放緩及貿易關稅影響的擔憂加劇,S&P 500和Nasdaq 100指數持續下滑。市場持續波動,投資者在不確定性加劇的環境中調整策略。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:13 2025-04-22 UTC+2

川普、美聯儲和黃金達到3,000美元?市場對令人驚訝的信號作出回應

投資者越來越擔心在唐納·川普的領導下,聯邦儲備系統的獨立性。美國資產正在下滑,美元兌歐元的匯率降至三年來的最低水平,日元和瑞士法郎等傳統避險貨幣正在增值。

11:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2

美國市場新聞摘要—4月21日

S&P 500 和 Nasdaq 再次下跌,此前唐納德·特朗普猛烈抨擊聯邦儲備系統。他的評論對央行的獨立性提出了質疑,加劇了市場對通脹的擔憂。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:41 2025-04-21 UTC+2

特朗普、美聯儲、3,000美元黃金?市場對警示標誌作出反應

隨著政治對美國聯邦儲備系統的施壓加劇及貿易風險上升,亞洲股市和美國期貨在周初開盤時出現大幅下跌,反映了日益增長的擔憂。 特朗普總統對美聯儲主席鮑威爾的嚴厲批評成為焦點。

Thomas Frank 10:18 2025-04-21 UTC+2

美國市場新聞摘要 - 4月18日

唐納德·特朗普再次加大了對聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的批評力度,再次呼籲立即下調利率。這種新的政治壓力讓聯準會面臨更高的緊張局勢,目前聯準會仍然保持謹慎態度。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:09 2025-04-18 UTC+2

巨人隕落:Alphabet 和 UnitedHealth 的決策如何影響市場

美國股市週四交易結束時陷入混亂,科技巨頭和製藥公司的利好消息與利率擔憂相撞。市場參與者在國際談判進展的希望和醫療保健行業的令人擔憂的跡象之間搖擺不定。

Thomas Frank 11:56 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Powell 危險嗎?特朗普能否解僱美聯儲主席,這對市場意味著什麼?

唐納·川普再度將目標對準聯邦儲備系統,指責其主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在貨幣政策上失敗,並威脅要將他革職。但在這些攻擊背後是對美聯儲獨立性真正的威脅,還是僅僅只是一輪政治壓力?這又如何可能影響市場、美元以及美國經濟?讓我們來檢視事實、風險和可能的情況。

Аlena Ivannitskaya 08:43 2025-04-18 UTC+2

美國市場新聞摘要 4月17日

傑羅姆·鮑威爾的最新言論引發美國股票急劇拋售。在聯邦儲備主席表示利率可能在年底前保持不變後,標普500指數和那斯達克均出現大幅下跌。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:21 2025-04-17 UTC+2

當一切都出錯時:Nvidia 面臨壓力,股價下跌,Powell 等待明確指引

由於美中技術對峙加劇和聯準會主席發表謹慎展望,週三的股市大幅下挫。 美國股市在Nvidia這家全球領先的晶片製造商表示可能因出口規則收緊而損失數十億美元後遭受重創。

Thomas Frank 10:27 2025-04-17 UTC+2

美國股市處於下跌區域:道瓊斯指數下跌0.4%,納斯達克指數下跌0.1%。樂觀的企業報告未能挽救華爾街。

由於貿易關稅的不確定性持續影響投資者情緒,美國股市週二以小幅下跌收盤。消費和醫療保健類股尤其受到影響,但主要銀行的強勁財報在一定程度上緩和了整體局面。

11:38 2025-04-16 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.