empty
25.02.2025 09:49 AM
Markets at a Crossroads: Key Factors to Watch (Possible Local Decline in Gold Prices and Rise in Crude Oil Prices)

After the markets reacted to the news of the U.S.-Russia negotiation process that was initiated following Donald Trump's call to Vladimir Putin, investors have shifted their focus back to the U.S. trade wars with several countries.

Initially, there was optimism regarding improved U.S.-Russia relations; however, the reality that Trump remains the key decision-maker proved less promising. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index (ICE) strengthened to 106.7, recovering from an 11-week low. This rebound followed Trump's announcement that tariffs on Canada and Mexico "will be imposed" after a one-month extension expires next week. Hopes that these two countries could negotiate a resolution with Trump's administration faded after his follow-up comments, prompting markets to adjust their expectations accordingly.

Market participants are now focusing on the upcoming PCE Price Index report and the second revised estimate of Q4 GDP, which could offer further clarity on the direction of monetary policy.

Last week, the U.S. Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.7 from 52.9, despite strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan weakened notably due to concerns over persistent inflation, which could continue to rise given Trump's protectionist stance.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock markets still lack a clear directional trend. The only assets showing a distinct movement have been the U.S. dollar on Forex and gold prices. The dollar declined due to uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policy, while gold prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets. In response, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, reported that its holdings increased to 904.38 tons on Friday—the highest level since August 2023.

What to Expect in the Markets Today?

I expect that both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market will remain in a consolidation phase, moving within sideways ranges. The dollar may experience a temporary rebound on the ICE index, reaching 106.75, but this should not be seen as a trend reversal. This week's market focus will be on the PCE index report, which is a key factor in the Fed's interest rate decisions, as well as the second estimate of Q4 2024 GDP.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day

GOLD

Gold prices remain near their historical high, but due to overbought conditions, a local decline to $2,903.00 is possible if the $2,932.70 level is breached.

CRUDE OIL (WTI)

The price of U.S. crude oil (WTI) remains in the $70.30–$73.50 range and may continue fluctuating within this range for some time. This is due to the current market balance between supply and demand. Given this equilibrium, a short-term upward move to the upper boundary of the range is likely.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is experiencing a slight decline after reaching a new all-time high, remaining in a defensive stance. Currently, bullish traders are exercising caution, as indicated by overbought conditions

Irina Yanina 10:29 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Fed's message music to bulls' ears

The Fed is not throwing a lifeline to the S&P 500, but does it need one? Lifelines are for those drowning, while the market is merely spooked by a fleeting

Marek Petkovich 09:05 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Markets Are Stuck in a Vicious Circle with No Exit in Sight (Potential Decline for Bitcoin and Gold Prices)

The markets are currently experiencing significant shock due to a prevailing negative sentiment that looms over them like a heavy burden, with no resolution in sight. Given this situation

Pati Gani 08:23 2025-03-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, primarily in the UK. Key reports will include the unemployment rate, changes in the number of unemployed individuals, and average wages

Paolo Greco 07:15 2025-03-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 20: Bank of England Vote May Cool Bullish Sentiment

The GBP/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Wednesday, considering the evening movements. As a reminder, we are not analyzing the results of the Federal Reserve meeting

Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 20: The Euro Holds a Strong Leadership Position

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a slight pullback but failed to consolidate below the moving average line. As per tradition, we will not analyze the outcome

Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/JPY: Mixed Outcomes of the Bank of Japan's March Meeting and Germany's "Debt Brake" Reform

The Bank of Japan has concluded its March policy meeting, delivering the most anticipated baseline scenario—keeping all monetary policy parameters unchanged. Market participants closely followed the statements of BOJ Governor

Irina Manzenko 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Euro Hits the Ceiling

Bets are now closed, ladies and gentlemen! Many have already played out. The EUR/USD's hesitation to rise following the Bundestag's approval of Friedrich Merz's fiscal stimulus package indicates that this

Marek Petkovich 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery for the second consecutive day after a recent decline, rebounding from a two-week low around 1.4260. Spot prices have climbed above

Irina Yanina 10:16 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Stock market pays dear cost for Washington's rhetoric

The boomerang effect: what goes around, comes around The US is retreating from globalization, and it is only a matter of time before it faces the consequences. According

Marek Petkovich 09:51 2025-03-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.