empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
01.08.2022 10:01 AM
The euro's collapse is imminent: why the EUR/USD pair risks falling much below parity with the dollar
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

This year, the euro has already fallen by more than 10% against the US dollar. But many analysts believe that this is far from the limit and predict a further decline for the EUR/USD pair.

What's going on with the euro?

Last month, heightened fears of a global recession sharply increased investors' appetite for a safe dollar, as a result of which the risky euro was in a strong flight.

Recall that in early July, the euro reached parity with the greenback for the first time in 20 years. The low was 0.9952.

Nevertheless, over the past two weeks, the EUR/USD pair has been able to recover slightly and has risen slightly above parity. Now the euro is trading at about 1.02, but at the same time it continues to remain under strong statistical pressure.

This image is no longer relevant

Last Friday, data showed that the German economy, which is the leading one in Europe, stagnated, and inflation in the 19-member currency bloc exceeded forecasts and soared to a new record of 8.9%.

As for this week, data on retail sales in the EU is expected to be released on Wednesday. Economists predict a decline in the indicator, which may negatively affect the euro's rate.

Why will the euro fall?

According to Bloomberg analysts, the eurozone is currently approaching another existential crisis similar to the one it experienced in 2012. Then the high level of debt of some EU countries led to speculation that the region could break up.

Recall that 10 years ago, the euro collapsed to $1.20. However, this year the euro is feeling even worse, as it has been under pressure from many negative factors.

One of them is another escalation of fears about the collapse of the eurozone. This time, the main source of concern is the situation in Italy.

Now the country, which is the third largest economy in Europe, is sinking deeper into the debt pit. Its inability to pay off its obligations may bury the project of a united Europe.

The risk increases amid political instability in the country. Italy is experiencing a government crisis again: in mid-July, due to contradictions in the ruling coalition, Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned.

The tense situation ahead of early parliamentary elections hinders the work of the European Central Bank, which is trying in every way to prevent the fragmentation of the region amid divergence in the debt spreads of eurozone members.

Do not forget that in parallel, the ECB continues to struggle with high inflation, which is breaking records everywhere this year.

In July, the central bank raised the interest rate by 50 bps, to 0.5%, while its US counterpart added another 75 bps to its benchmark last month, pulling the rate to the range of 2.25-2.5%.

However, a large discrepancy in the monetary policy of the ECB and the Federal Reserve is far from the only obstacle for the EUR/USD pair. The euro's growth is severely limited by fears of a recession in the European region.

According to the Swiss bank Credit Suisse, the probability of a slowdown in economic growth in Europe by the end of the year is 50%, and Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the EU is already entering this phase.

Anyway, for the rest of the year, the word "recession" in the context of the European economy will continue to scare away bulls on the EUR/USD pair.

Given the strong exposure of the EU to the energy crisis, American bank J.P. Morgan predicts that by the end of the year the euro risks falling to 95 cents.

Аlena Ivannitskaya,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The Japanese yen continues to strengthen, remaining near its highest levels of 2024. This is driven by growing demand for traditional safe-haven assets amid a weakening U.S. dollar caused
Irina Yanina
12:31 2025-04-14 +02:00
1045
Technical analysis
Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025 On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise but pulled back in the second half of the day. The decline (i.e., dollar strengthening) was short-lived
Samir Klishi
12:28 2025-04-14 +02:00
1060
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

US Market News Digest for April 14

The US stock market rallied after President Donald Trump announced the removal of tariffs on computers and smartphones. The decision delivered a particularly strong boost to companies such as Apple
Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:09 2025-04-14 UTC+2

European chipmakers rejoice as US lifts stocks

A rally in tech stocks helped lift European shares on Monday after US President Donald Trump granted exemptions to Chinese tariffs on smartphones and computers, giving markets a break after
Thomas Frank 11:14 2025-04-14 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 11

After Wednesday's explosive rally triggered by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, US markets on Thursday decided the party was premature. Major indices tumbled: the Dow dropped
Natalia Andreeva 15:28 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Rollercoaster: S&P 500 down 3%, gold hits all-time highs

US stocks fall after Wednesday's events, S&P 500 down 3% European and Asian stocks close higher after Trump suspends most tariffs Bond market rally stabilizes, gold prices hit all-time highs
Thomas Frank 09:44 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin struggles to find support as tariff turmoil roils global markets

The flagship cryptocurrency remains in a fragmented state, unable to establish a firm footing. Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility and posted losses this week. Nevertheless, experts remain optimistic, anticipating
Larisa Kolesnikova 14:38 2025-04-10 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 10

The S&P 500 index notched one of its biggest one-day gains in recent months. The upward move slowed near 5,516, but a break above key resistance at 5,669.50 could open
Irina Maksimova 12:58 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Why are stocks rising as yuan sags and U.S. futures slip?

The financial world breathed a sigh of relief on Thursday as stock markets surged higher and the chaotic bond selloff finally slowed down. The reason was a surprise initiative
Thomas Frank 10:17 2025-04-10 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 9

US stock indices closed lower after the White House announced a new wave of tariffs on Chinese goods. The rate could rise to 104%, a direct hit on imports
Irina Maksimova 12:33 2025-04-09 UTC+2

Domino effect: US tariffs slam markets, investors dump dollar, bonds

Trump's China tariffs spark recession fears US Treasuries and dollar hit by sell-off, yields soar European stocks fall as US retaliatory tariffs take effect World markets face crisis-era volatility, stocks
Thomas Frank 11:20 2025-04-09 UTC+2

"Golden" Forecasts: Gold at $3,500, $3,700 – Higher and Higher?

Gold forecasts are becoming increasingly dazzling in every sense, as analysts appear to be competing with one another over how high the precious metal could go. Rising geopolitical instability
Larisa Kolesnikova 11:07 2025-04-09 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD Weekly Preview: The Show Must Go On
05:37 2025-04-14
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-04-14 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The Dollar—From Leader to Laggard
03:37 2025-04-14
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-15 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 14. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:12 2025-04-14
Forecast
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-04-14 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on April 14: The Pound – The Silent Leader
03:33 2025-04-14
Trading plan
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-04-14 UTC--4
GBP/USD Overview. April 14: The British Pound Remains a Hostage of the Dollar
03:37 2025-04-14
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.